[swiss express]

can novak djokovic beat mr charismatic?

of course he can.why not.you never know whats waiting in the final for us.he's a great champion and he knows how to win even if its not his day,and not playing his best tennis.he has beat roger in his wirse forms when roger was supposed to be favorite BUT was nervous.

sometimes if you are an underdog,its a lot better for you.you are not under pressure and you can play your own tennis and gameplan away from all the expectations.

in 2008 when roger had finally been dethroned from world number one penthouse after all those years,he said prior to his participation at us open that he feels more comfortable as an underdog.and being the favorite always puts the pressure on your shoulders.and he won the title.that indicates how much pressure he handled all those 4 years as world number one and entering as the favorite at the majors.and how good & successful he was at handling that pressure.

once at the tail end of 2012 season djokovic said that roger is the favorite in every tournament he partakes.

roger has shown so much nervousness and mental problem against the serb esp when rog was the favorite to win it(2009 miami when he was making millions of forehand unforced errors and finally he broke the racquet in quite a furious manner)

so we can't say definitely that novak is gonna lose tonight's match.

i didn't watch fed dolgo match but i guess roger's pace and taking the ball early panicked the poor dog and he wasn't able to absorb roger's pace.(nadal is slower compared to rog at the baseline ,using high top spin forehands and a lot behind the baseline)so it wasn't the case that dolgopolov played poorly,ROGER OUTPLAYED AND OUTCLASSED HIM WITH HIS PACE.

but the question is ?can roger keep his composure and hold his nerves?if for any reason he loses concentration,then novak has a chance.so novak has his chances tonight.

and roger hasnt won any masters since cincy 2012.so it could add to the pressure.
novak is also thirsty for revenge for his loss at dubai SF.so it could give him motivation and put the pressure on roger's shoulders.
roger hasn't won any prestigious masters one thousand since bagelling novak at cincy final 2012.so he desperate to add another masters title to his already illustrious career.

i give 60 percent of winning chance to roger and the rest to novak.

GAMEPLAN

i imagine the serve could be of the highest importance in this match esp for maestro.novak has the best return in the business and he wouldn't worry much about being broken .but roger has to be quite sharp on his service delivery.

though i imagine since getting the new racquet with the bigger racquet head,rog has been quite successful on his returns.breaking immediately after being broken(broke stepanek 7 times at dubai)so i guess we could count on that.

on the other hand novak has been really inconsistent on his serve.twice serving for the match he was broken by a poor returner who we dont expect much on his return of serve ,previous night.

he lost the first set to cilic 61.im sure todd martin has always been credited for reviving novak's serve and they were supposed to work with each other for a certain period of time,and he was'n't supposed to stay there at novak's box for ever.so i dont imagine the had split in a sulky manner.

i think novak is a slow starter,so i think rog has to win the first set,on the other hand in their las three encounters if memory serves me right novak has won the 1st sets.at paris london and of course dubai.
At paris and london novak won the opening sets and went on to win those matches but at dubai he also won the first set but eventually he lost the match.so we can't say for sure anybody winning the first set will win the title but I think If roger wins the first set he wont lose anymore
yes roger wasn't able to beat novak for 18 months and novak fans can boast that,but the truth is that they didn't encounter each other much during that period.

we can also say rafa hasn't been able to beat murray since 2011.that's true but that season ndal beat andy on three back to back grand slams on three different surfaces.(plus his victories at london 2010 and monte carlo 2011)so 5 back to back victories for rafael but he lost and was bagelled at a very quick court at tokyo final .in fact he lost their last match and they haven't encountered each other since then,and tokyo 500 is a minor tournament compared to those five matches.so nadal hasn't beat murray since the tail end of 2011!!

novak is the quickest on the return so rog needs to add variety to his serve,sometimes going to the wide serve,using the pinpoint down the T and mixing it up with the body serve.

this way he can keep novak guessing.he shouldn't use too much repititive service patterns.so he shouldn't reveal his hands

the best player who was able to to hide his serve directon against novak was american andy roddick.thats why he has a positive head to head record against the serb.it was so tough fo the serb to guess the direction. roger has to keep the serb guessing during the match.

whether he is going for big first serve and risk his 1st serve chances,or get the speed off the first serve and go for a reasonable 1st delivery in case not to miss it and be under pressure on the 2nd serve.,is his own call.but i wouldn't have recommended the latter one.because if he wants to win it,he has to risk it as well.and bring serves that novak can't return as the best returner.

he can also use his own tactic of hitting the backhand return and approaching and ghosting the net sometimes to rush and panick the serb.and change his own return of serve pattern

since changing his racquet he seems more solid with his backhands esp the backhand down the line.
he has been using it more this season.of cousr the bigger racquet head helps him.and i have witnessed that novak has problems for keeping his balance and footwork stance on reaching that particular shot against rog or stan.

sometimes when novak is defending 2 or 3 meters behind the baseline,and roger is hitting aggressive shots from side to side,the best tactic that roger can use seems to use a forehand drop shot.

though this is extremely dangerous and tough under pressure,and hard to regulate the air he give to the ball,still i think its the shot that roger uses brilliantly.he is a master of that shot but sometimes he doesn't use it at that particular moment .i think its a better shot that making an unforced error or receive a passing shot.

he used it so masterly against simon i think last year.very cleverly and a lot of times and end and cut those rsllies short on a clay court at masters one thousand.

and i have witnessed novak has problems reaching those balls when he struggles 2 or 3 meters behind the baseline esp against roger's drop shots.and of course even if he reaches those tricky insidious shots,roger can finish the point,using a volley.

and this is a slower court compared to dubai,so he has to use that particular shots from time to time,and of course not frequently to reveal his hands.

of cousr he has to avoid the long rallies with the likes of rafa and novak ,and come to the net more often than not.because naturally rogers an aggressive type and he has to finish the points quicker by cutting them short at the net.

though for my money,roger has been absolutely consistent during the rallies this year.so we can count on that too.

though the drop shot prosper is to roger's advantage at this slower court compared to dubai fast court,but serving volley is tougher here in comparison to dubai duty free courts.
because it is slower and your opponent has much more time to respond with a passing shot.

but srill i believe roger has to come to the net sometimes to have variety in his tactics and keep the serb guessing all the time what he would do next.

roger has to break the seb whenever the serb is struggling with his service games.for me those are the golden opportunities that wiil decide the outcome of the match.(he shouldn't waste his break point opportunities as he is used to.he confessed this to jim courier after beating murray at aussie open this year and wasting zillions of break point chances.he said i waste more BP chances more than the other top boys,and im used to this)


if roger keeps his composure tonight he will win the title .